28 Aug

Rising Action

On the eve of the RNC, a quick look at how various projections are looking at the electoral college race.

First, CNN’s:

Leaving out the toss-up states is a useful visual tool; we can see how close Obama really is. By CNN’s estimate, he’s 33 votes shy of victory at this point.

Some useful comments from CNN’s John King about the latest numbers (a weekend CNN/ORC poll showing a near-tie in the race):

So does that 49 percent (Obama-Biden) to 47 percent (Romney-Ryan) national horserace tell us anything about how this race will end?

History suggests: NO.

After all, the Obama-McCain race was tied four years ago just before the nominating conventions kicked off. It was not a close race in the end.

In 1992, President George H. W. Bush held a small lead over Ross Perot and Bill Clinton as the conventions got under way. Yes, Clinton was running…

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